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Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the side's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.